For decades, the Gusii Nation was Raila Odinga’s political breadbasket—a reliable voting bloc that turned out in droves for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) election after election.
If you clinched the ODM ticket in Kisii or Nyamira, victory was all but assured. That was the story—until 2022, when the cracks became too wide to ignore.
By March 2025, it’s clear: the wall has collapsed, and Raila’s grip on this once-loyal stronghold is slipping through his fingers. The reason? A mix of his own missteps, a growing sense of disenfranchisement among Gusii leaders and voters, and the unstoppable rise of Dr. Fred Matiang’i.
Come 2027, the Gusii Nation could be Matiang’i’s domain—leaving Raila to wonder where it all went wrong.
The 2022 Wake-Up Call
Let’s start with the numbers, because they don’t lie. In Kisii County, ODM secured just 3 out of 9 parliamentary seats in 2022—a far cry from its past dominance. The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) scooped 4, Jubilee nabbed 1, and Matiang’i’s United Progressive Alliance (UPA) claimed 1 with Bonchari MP Charles Onchoke.
Nyamira County tells a similar tale: ODM won 2 MPs, but UPA’s Governor Amos Nyaribo, alongside 1 UDA MP and 1 Jubilee MP, chipped away at Raila’s hold. True, ODM still boasts Kisii Governor Simba Arati and Senator Richard Onyonka, but the women representatives—Doris Donya in Kisii (Wiper) and Jerusha Momanyi in Nyamira (Jubilee)—owe nothing to Raila’s party.
This isn’t just electoral math; it’s a referendum on Raila’s leadership in Gusii. The voting bloc he once took for granted is fragmenting, and Matiang’i is quietly positioning himself to pick up the pieces.
The 2022 results were a warning shot—and Raila didn’t duck.
The Matiang’i Factor
Enter Fred Matiang’i, the former Interior Cabinet Secretary dubbed “Mr. Fix-It” during Uhuru Kenyatta’s regime. He hasn’t been crowned a kingpin yet, but he doesn’t need a title to command attention.
His UPA party already has a foothold—think Nyaribo in Nyamira and Onchoke in Kisii—and his reputation for competence and discipline resonates in a region hungry for progress.
While Raila banks on charisma and coalition-building, Matiang’i offers something different: a technocratic promise to catapult Gusii onto the national stage. As locals put it, “The language people understand in Kisii currently is Matiang’i.”
The shift is palpable. MPs like Daniel Manduku and Anthony Kibagendi have publicly told Raila they’re done with ODM, accusing him of disrespecting the Gusii community.
This isn’t just personal ambition—it’s a collective cry. Leaders feel the ground moving beneath them, and they’re betting on Matiang’i’s wave to carry them into 2027.
Raila’s Missteps
Where did Raila stumble? Look at his choices. In Parliament, not a single Gusii MP chairs a key committee. The minority leader slot went from Opiyo Wandayi (a Luo, now a Cabinet Secretary) to Junet Mohamed (Migori), with Milly Odhiambo (also Luo Nyanza) as minority whip. Gusii voices? Silent.
Then came the cabinet snub. When Raila secured four slots in the broad-based government, he handed two to Luos (Wandayi and John Mbadi), one to Wycliffe Oparanya (Luhya), and one to Hassan Joho (Coast). Gusii? Nothing. Even Timothy Bosire, a loyal ODM foot soldier for years, was tossed a board chairmanship he promptly rejected.
The disconnect hit home recently. At ODM’s 20th anniversary bash in Busia, only Governor Arati showed up from Gusii.
Last week, Raila toured Kisii County on March 6, 2025, and the turnout was dismal: just Arati, MP Obadiah Barongo, and nominated MP Irene Mayaka (who’s more tied to Luo Nyanza through marriage). Two elected leaders and a plus-one? That’s not a rally—it’s a wake.
The message is unmistakable: the Gusii elite are tired of clapping for crumbs.
The 2027 Prediction
If this trend holds, 2027 could be a Matiang’i sweep. Picture it: UPA clinching all 9 MP seats in Kisii County and all 4 in Nyamira, giving Matiang’i total control of the Gusii parliamentary bloc. Any leader outside his orbit—ODM, UDA, or otherwise—risks being sent home.
Chief Justice Emeritus David Maraga has been active, rallying youth and calling out the government, but he’s more symbol than strategist.
Matiang’i, with his political machinery and grassroots momentum, is the real deal. Maraga inspires; Matiang’i delivers.
This isn’t just a Gusii story—it’s a national one. A unified Gusii under Matiang’i could force Raila and President Ruto to rethink their alliances. No longer a vote bank to be courted and discarded, the region might finally demand its due.
Raila Odinga once saw Gusii as his backyard, but he forgot to tend the garden.
Now, Fred Matiang’i is planting new seeds—and come 2027, the harvest might just be his. Will his wave carry him to State House, or simply secure Gusii’s bargaining power? That’s for the future to decide. For now, one thing is certain: the Gusii Nation is no longer Raila’s to lose.
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