A new study conducted by TIFA has shown a split among Kenyan voters on the results of the 2022 presidential election.
The study reveals that at least 12% of Kenyans who voted for President William Ruto believe he lost to his rival Raila Odinga.
On the other hand, 14% of declared Raila Odinga voters believe that Ruto won the election.
According to the study, 75% of Ruto supporters believe he won, while the rest are not sure. In contrast, 71% of Raila supporters believe that he did not win.
The remaining Raila supporters are not sure. On average, 48% of all Kenyans believe that Ruto won the election, while 37% believe that the sitting President did not win the August 2022 polls.
The remaining 15% of Kenyan voters are not sure who won the election.
The TIFA study reveals a stark split on this issue between Ruto and Odinga voters, with nearly equal numbers expressing the view that he did/did not achieve this.
TIFA stated, “Among those who claim to have voted for either of the two main 2022 presidential contenders, only a modest plurality believes that the officially declared winner – William Ruto – did, in fact, receive the most votes (48% vs. 37%).”
The fact that one-quarter of declared Ruto voters are not convinced that he was actually victorious adds weight to doubts expressed about the integrity of the declared official results.
Similarly, the fact that about the same proportion of those who say they voted for Odinga are not convinced that he won indicates that the Azimio claims that his election was ‘stolen’ have not (yet?) been entirely convincing even among his supporters.
TIFA Polls on MPs
According to the research, a slight majority of Kenyans (52%) believe that opposition Members of Parliament (MPs) should work with the government for development.
Meanwhile, 41% want the opposition MPs to remain “strong” in opposition, while the remaining 7% did not favor any side.
The study shows that 32% of Kenya Kwanza supporters want opposition MPs to remain loyal to their parties, while 62% want the MPs to join the government side.
On the other hand, 54% of Azimio supporters want their MPs to remain in opposition, while 40% want them to join the government.
However, while larger majorities of Kenya Kwanza supporters and Azimio supporters take these opposing positions, neither of these reach the two-thirds mark, suggesting how divided supporters of these coalitions are even among themselves on this issue.
For their part, the views of those ‘non-aligned’ in terms of coalition support more closely match those of the former, with somewhat more of them in favor of such MPs working “closely” with the government of the day,” added TIFA.
TIFA conducted the survey between April 7th and 10th, 2023, with a nationally representative sample of 1,500 respondents.
The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5%.